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Approaches to public policy: Systems-level preparedness for future pandemics
Reported by Aubin Ramon, CSaP Policy Intern (Sept-Dec 2024)
Dr Nikolai Kazantsev, Research Associate at the Institute for Manufacturing (IfM), University of Cambridge, presented at CSaP online seminar in our latest Policy Fellows series on the theme of Approaches to public policy.
Dr Kazantsev leverages engineering methodologies and system-based approaches to strengthen the preparedness of public services in case of emergency. Given that a pandemic is the most likely catastrophic risk to suddenly disrupt society in the UK, Dr Kazantsev framed his talk around a study of the COVID-19 pandemic management, highlighting key lessons to improve healthcare responses to enhance the quality and cost-efficiency of services to save more lives.
A Futures Wheel visualisation clearly maps the cascading effects of a pandemic, from household needs (e.g.face masks) to hospital necessities (e.g.ventilators). To respond to a growing demand rapidly, emergency consortia can be formed by aggregating various capabilities from diverse existing supply chains to fulfil the same bill of materials. For instance, through Ventilator Challenge UK, a consortium produced around 13,000 ventilators within 12 weeks. Dr Kazantsev explained how this success was driven by clear goals, digital innovation, and flexible certification processes.
However, challenges remained, such as the lack of agreed certified ventilator designs and production facilities. To address future emergencies, Dr Kazantsev recommended: re-establishing production communities around a short list of key products, certifying emergency product designs, clarifying production capabilities, and identifying bottlenecks in the supply chain with system dynamics simulations and digital twins. Looking ahead, he advocated for investing in local capabilities to buffer demand shocks on global supply chains, and to ensure public confidence to avoid fear and conspiracy theories.
A follow-up discussion explored the advantages for companies to prepare for Black Swan events as part of their resilience strategy; the dilemma in lowering standards for regulators; the collaboration with neighbouring countries to tackle transport logistics; and the crucial role of preventitive public consultations in designing emergency products better suited to the needs of the population.